Using Stats in Your Golf Betting Strategy
Stats in Your Golf Digging into the numbers is what’s going to set you apart from the individual who’s not doing enough homework. Shopping the lines and getting the best prices available is essential to stay ahead, that goes without saying. However, it’s not enough to carry you to long-term profitability.
We alluded to being clued in on the recent form, so let’s start there.
Golf is a fickle game. We have seen guys make multiple cuts in a row and then drop off significantly. We’ve seen golfers come out of the woodwork when nothing about their recent game log suggested they would perform well.
But, for the most part, golf is a predictive sport.
Stats in Your Golf Ride the Hot Golfer
Riding a golfer in a groove is a great way to bolster your ROI. In fact, it’s one of the best ways to bet on golf. Let’s look at an example to illustrate why.
Abraham Ancer was hanging out at +200 to finish inside the top 20 at the 2021 PGA Championship. There was good reason to think this was a value bet.
|ABRAHAM ANCER’S RESULTS LEADING INTO THE 2021 PGA CHAMPIONSHIP|
|2/28/21||WGC at The Concession||T18|
|3/14/21||THE PLAYERS Championship||T22|
|3/28/21||WGC Match Play||T18|
|4/4/21||Valero Texas Open||23|
|5/9/21||Wells Fargo Championship||2|
Given he had an active streak of four consecutive top-20s and had finished 26th or better in eight straight, +200 was too juicy to ignore. As it panned out, Abraham tallied a T8 at the PGA. His top-20 bet was cashed with plenty of room to spare.
When Viktor Hovland won the 2020 Mayakoba Golf Classic, it wasn’t a surprise. Hovland had connected on 16 cuts in a row and had landed inside the top 15 in four of his previous five starts.
On the flip side, Dustin Johnson unexpectedly missed the cut in his hometown state at the 2021 PGA Championship. But is DJ’s MC really that unexpected?
Johnson arrived in Kiawah Island with no top-10s in his prior six starts and was coming off a T48 and a WD. We could go on and on providing these types of two-way examples. The takeaway is that measuring how a golfer has been recently giving you a reasonable idea of what you can expect.
Using Stokes Gained Golf Stats
In terms of other data worth exploring, combing through a player’s stats gives you a leg up on the bettors who bet blindly. Statistics portray strengths and weaknesses, and they help determine how good of a course fit a golfer may or may not be. Best of all, they do so in a simplistic manner.
The Strokes Gained data introduced by Mark Broadie in 2011 was a breakthrough for bettors who prefer an analytical approach. Instead of theorizing how good someone is in a certain area of their game, the SG numbers give us real-life feedback.
The Strokes Gained data analyzes how many shots it takes a golfer (on average) to hole out from a specific place, relative to the other golfers in the field. It’s become the most accurate way of depicting how good or bad a player is at a certain facet of their game.
In all, there are six SG categories accounted for.
- SG: Off-the-Tee
- SG: Approach-the-Green
- SG: Around-the-Green
- SG: Putting
- SG: Tee-to-Green
- SG: Total
Once you study the course at hand, pick out three or four stats you deem key for the week.
If a tournament is being played at a par-72 venue with four par-5s, par-5 scoring is a stat that should be weighted more heavily than if it was a par-70 track with only two par-5s. And you can dive deeper than that.
If the golf course has small greens and yields a low GIR %, golfers who are good at scrambling tend to be better picked. If the course is long and the rough is down, driving distance should receive a bump on any betting models.
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