BET365 sportsbook How to Predict a DRAW in Football?
BET365 sportsbook How To Predict The Total Number of Goals In A Football Match
BET365 sportsbook How To Predict The Total Number of Goals In A Football Match, Surely you want to know the secret to learning how to predict a tie in soccer, right?
So here we go:
Before a football match starts, many people may consider that the most likely outcome of that match will be a draw.
However, few stop to think more professionally about it, analyzing concrete data from previous games to base their guesses.
Needless to say, those who usually bet or intend to start doing so need this theoretical foundation to maximize their successes.
Fortunately, that’s exactly what we’ve prepared in this article: a veritable arsenal of information and tips to help you predict a tie in a football match. Check out!
BET365 sportsbook How To Predict The Total Number of Goals In A Football Match?
The 25% rule
The first thing you should always remember is that the chance of a tie is approximately 25%.
To be more specific, a recent comparison of six major European leagues found draw percentages fluctuating between 23.2% and 25.8%. That is, every four matches, one usually ends without a winner, regardless of the country in which the competition is played.
Therefore, it is possible to see that a draw is rarer than a victory, especially for the team that plays at home.
However, don’t forget that this 25% percentage is the average for the games. For example: in an eventual confrontation in the Copa do Brasil between Corinthians and Cianorte in the capital of São Paulo, would the chance of a draw be 25% as well?
Studies show that a large technical gap between two teams reduces the probability of drawing to about 15%, as in this case, the winning chances of the stronger team absorb a part of the chances.
Let’s now imagine the reverse situation: instead of a significant difference in quality between two teams, a match between two similar teams, with squads of similar technical level.
For example, the classic Gre-Nal, one of the biggest in the country.
In this case, as Grêmio and Inter are similar teams, the chance of a draw does not decrease, but increases! Studies point to a probability of around 30% of a tie between equivalent teams.
In addition to the 25% rule, a much more subjective factor that also helps to predict a draw in football is the possible convenience of this result for both teams in a game, as sometimes a victory is not considered important for either team involved in the game. confrontation.
For example, think of a match between a title contender and a relegation contender, in which a tie ensures that the former is champion and the latter does not drop to the lower division. However, whoever loses has his goal seriously threatened.
Will these teams take a lot of risk during the match or will they play a “compadres game”, drawn-out, with many passes exchanged and a high probability of ending in a draw? Obviously the second case!
It is evident that sports entities and clubs harmed by the draw will not appreciate this merely reactive behavior.
However, it is very difficult to prove that two teams are not playing with the proper desire to score goals.
So, in practice, the convenience of a tie needs to be taken into account by bettors, even in less extreme cases than the one presented in our didactic example.
The famous 1×1
Relevant information for those who usually bet on draws and also on the exact score of the match is the chance of each score occurring.
After all, who was never in doubt when betting on 0x0, 1×1, or 2×2?
At first, they seem to be more or less equally likely to happen, but did you know that one of them is almost twice as likely as another?
Fortunately, there is a study to facilitate our choices. All Premier League (English Championship) games between 2006 and 2016 were analyzed, therefore a considerable period, since it is a decade.
The ties in general and also the most frequent scores among the ties were evaluated.
Corroborating the aforementioned 25% rule, the study found that 26% of games ended without a winner in that period in England.
Of this total number of draws, the most common score was the famous 1×1, with 42% of occurrences. Then came the goalless games (0x0), which obtained a percentage of 32%.
Finally, 2×2 represented 22% of this universe. Ties with more goals, like 3×3 or 4×4, are very rare, so their percentages are minimal compared to the three most routine types.
Thus, it is possible to conclude that 1×1 is the most common tie (use this rhyme for memorization). This is valid whenever we consider an expressive set of games, both in England and in other countries.
Bearing in mind that the average number of goals per match is usually between 2 and 3, it is understandable that 1×1 prevails over other draws.
Therefore, remember that it is
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