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Genesis Scottish Open

The Genesis Scottish Open is a final chance to prepare for the Open Championship, and this weekend will see a competitive field at The Renaissance Club as a result. Our odds and picks dive into who can win head-to-head matchups and grab top finishes.

This week, the Renaissance Club in North Berwick will host a strong field of PGA and DP World Tour players at the Genesis Scottish Open.

It’s the last chance for link players to fine-tune their games before the Open Championship at St. Andrews, and for bettors, it’s another opportunity to dig into the data and find the golfers who can win head-to-head matchups and grab top finishes at this up-and-coming national open.

Genesis Scottish Open odds

Genesis Scottish Open picks

  • Pereira (+100) over Conners
  • Im (-120) over Hovland
  • Young (-120) over Varner III
  • Lucas Herbert Top 20 (+280)
  • Callum Tarren Top 20 (+800)
  • Joaquin Niemann Top 10 (+600)

The Renaissance Club gives us the stats we need to know.

This is the fourth time for the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club. Min Woo Lee, Aaron Rai, and Bernd Weisberger have taken first place in the last three years.

Don’t expect a slog on this par 71. Min Woo won the Open Championship at -18, and scoring should be similar this year with wind and weather looking pretty benign for Scotland.

The layout is unique, with four par fives and five par threes. Three of these par threes play over 200 yards. There are also five par fours that can play over 450 yards, but keep in mind that if the conditions are firm and fast, your ball will go much further than you expect.

  • Recent form around the greens.
  • Strokes gained approach.
  • Links course history.
  • Par-five scoring and eagles gained.
  • Recent birdie or better opportunities gained.

Forecasting the Genesis Scottish Open matchup

Mito Pereira (+100) over Corey Conners, who is 25th in approach, but 10th in scoring opportunities. Both are striking it well, but we think Pereira will make more birdies. He’s first in scoring opportunities over the last 12 rounds and 15th in birdies.

The Over/Under for scoring in this round is 17.5, so we’re thinking that Pereira’s ability to make birdies will outweigh Conners’s knack for avoiding bogeys.

Also, while Conners has been putting better lately than he did earlier in the year, we’ll take 40th around the greens for Pereira recently vs. 84th for Conners.

Sung Jae Im (-120) over Viktor Hovland. We like Im’s short game over Hovland’s. In the last 36 rounds, Im is eighth in the field around the greens and 22nd in the total short game, while Hovland is 128th and 86th in those same stats.

Hovland has not had a Top 20 finish since The Players and his irons are no longer hot. Is he weighing a LIV decision?

Cameron Young (-120) over Harold Varner III

Both players are making their Scottish Open debut, but Young is the better bet. He outscores Varner in all the recent scoring statistics, as well as proximity from short-range and around the greens. Young is also first off the tee vs. this field over the last 12 rounds, compared to 67th for Varner.

So, Young will be in a position to score more often and he makes more putts from inside 15 feet than Harold does. Like the matchup above, the juice here is justified and this could be a sturdy parlay leg.

Genesis Scottish Open top finisher predictions

Lucas Herbert

ranks first in putting, 10th around the greens, and fourth in scrambling over the last 24 rounds at the Scottish Open. He actually has seven rounds of 67 or better at the Renaissance Club over the last three years

Herbert hasn’t had a great deal of success on the PGA Tour recently, other than finishing 13th at the PGA Championship, but his ninth-place finish at the Irish Open last week has us feeling good about his form. We also like that he’s fourth in both sand saves and scrambling over the last 24 rounds.

Callum Tarren is a contender this week. He’s seventh in par-5 scoring over the last 12 rounds and there are five of those on this course. So, he’s in good form for this course. Why is the 8/1?

Although Tarren is a worldwide traveler, he’s an Englishman making his debut at the Scottish Open. And although he’s got some poor driving stats over the last two months, it looks like he’s on form this week.

We think he’ll actually be more at home off the tee here, and we also like his recent putting and around-the-green form. His 31st place finish at the US Open is a bit misleading: He knew how to handle those firm and fast conditions at Brookline.

Joaquin Niemann Top 10 (+600)

Niemann has been quiet since finishing third at the Memorial, but we still like him this week. He’s solid off the tee, and he shines in tough conditions, so if it’s windy out there this weekend, that works to his advantage. Niemann is sixth in the field in total strokes gained over the last 50 rounds played in windy conditions, according to Fantasy National. We also like his recent par-five scoring form and believe he can return to his baseline of gaining a shot or so around the greens following three bad showings in that department.

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